Andreeski, Cvetko and Petrevska, Biljana and Nikoloska, Iva (2026) Tourism dynamics in South-East Europe: Similarities and predictability. Hotel and Tourism Management, 14 (1). pp. 45-60. ISSN 2620-0279
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Abstract
This study investigates the dynamics and common tourism patterns of selected countries in South-East Europe in the post-COVID-19 period. The main goal is to classify the countries by inter-country similarities and differences in tourist flows while assessing predictability in tourism demand across the region. Methodology – The research analyzes monthly tourist arrivals for the period 2022–2025 in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Slovenia. It employs K-means and Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) clustering to identify time series patterns, while a Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated
Moving Average (SARIMA) panel data model provides a one-year forecast to 2026.
Findings – Results reveal three groups: Cluster 0 (Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, North Macedonia, Slovenia) with similar patterns; Cluster 1 (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Montenegro); and Serbia as an outlier. Seasonality is lowest in Serbia and highest in Albania and Bulgaria. Forecasts predict the largest growth in Albania (21%), moderate gains in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria and Montenegro (6-8%), modest increases in Serbia and Greece (2-3%), slow growth for Croatia (1%) and stagnation for North Macedonia.
Implications – This research advances the literature on regional tourism forecasting and supports policymakers in targeting low-seasonality destinations for stable planning and highgrowth areas for capacity expansion, enhancing tourism resilience of South-East Europe.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Scientific Fields (Frascati) > Social Sciences > Economics and Business |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality |
| Depositing User: | Prof. d-r Cvetko Andreeski |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Oct 2026 10:43 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Oct 2026 10:43 |
| URI: | https://eprints.uklo.edu.mk/id/eprint/11879 |
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